Global RecessionActive

Closes in 45d 13h· Oct 31, 12:00 AM

Will the IMF forecast global economic growth below 2% (global recession threshold) in its October 2026 World Economic Outlook?

Vote distribution

Yes50%

No50%

Verification source: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO

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Will the NBER declare that the US has entered a recession before June 20, 2026?

🔮 Open questions

Will the IMF revise its global growth forecast for 2026 downward in its June 2026 update?
Will the NBER declare that the US has entered a recession before June 20, 2026?

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📊 Confidence levels

💭 +10/-240 (30%)
🔍 +25/-1044 (33%)
⚡ +50/-2528 (21%)
💎 +100/-5022 (16%)